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Table 1 Results of estimation of age–period–cohort using the intrinsic estimator method

From: Evolutionary trends in fertility among Chinese women, 1990–2015

 

National

Urban

Rural

Town

 

All-order

First

All-order

First

All-order

First

All-order

First

Age

        

15–19

− 0.9204

(0.1402)

0.4394 (0.4037)

− 1.3308

(0.2279)

− 0.3720

(0.5273)

− 0.8096

(0.1234)

0.7491 (0.3861)

− 1.0607

(0.1839)

0.1453 (0.4841)

20–24

1.8830

(0.0703)

2.6871

(0.2653)

1.8502

(0.1065)

2.3802

(0.3375)

1.9253

(0.0637)

2.8837 (0.2573)

2.0327

(0.0890)

2.8018(0.3148)

25–29

1.7070

(0.0695)

1.9101

(0.1607)

1.9599

(0.0864)

2.1622

(0.1886)

1.6547

(0.0652)

2.0403 (0.1644)

1.8046

(0.0776)

2.1214(0.1828)

30–34

0.8208

(0.0887)

0.1651

(0.1588)

0.8748

(0.0997)

0.5717

(0.1363)

0.8338

(0.0838)

− 0.1059 (0.1900)

0.7905

(0.0947)

0.1978(0.1662)

35–39

− 0.2471

(0.1265)

− 1.1681

(0.2874)

− 0.2257

(0.1444)

− 0.7965

(0.2672)

− 0.2634

(0.1198)

− 1.3246 (0.3281)

− 0.2468

(0.1355)

− 1.1951 (0.3151)

40–44

− 1.3539

(0.1869)

− 1.9806

(0.4432)

− 1.3718

(0.2217)

− 1.7947

(0.4477)

− 1.3730

(0.1762)

− 2.0930 (0.4878)

− 1.4229

(0.2092)

− 1.9073 (0.4777)

45–49

− 1.8895

(0.2498)

− 2.0529

(0.5477)

− 1.7567

(0.2852)

− 2.1509

(0.6124)

− 1.9678

(0.2378)

− 2.1495 (0.5877)

− 1.8975

(0.2707)

− 2.1639 (0.6151)

Period

        

1990

0.9019

(0.0829)

0.0557

(0.3380)

0.6954

(0.1225)

0.0841

(0.4227)

0.8891

(0.0761)

0.1468 (0.3319)

0.6181

(0.1056)

− 0.0491 (0.3987)

1995

− 0.0624

(0.0737)

− 0.2527

(0.2136)

− 0.1458

(0.0944)

− 0.2802

(0.2618)

− 0.0886

(0.0696)

− 0.1876 (0.2100)

− 0.1530

(0.0860)

− 0.1870 (0.2486)

2000

− 0.3627

(0.0671)

− 0.3566

(0.1093)

− 0.5122

(0.0800)

− 0.4127

(0.1205)

− 0.3134

(0.0624)

− 0.3098 (0.1090)

− 0.3745

(0.0724)

− 0.2527 (0.1187)

2005

− 0.2563

(0.0637)

− 0.1006

(0.1070)

− 0.3274

(0.0768)

− 0.2281

(0.1210)

− 0.1801

(0.0582)

− 0.1631 (0.1076)

− 0.1828

(0.0670)

− 0.0087 (0.1160)

2010

− 0.1885

(0.0760)

0.1762

(0.2152)

− 0.0606

(0.0983)

0.2273

(0.2642)

− 0.1704

(0.0698)

− 0.2749 (0.2143)

− 0.0806

(0.0857)

0.1209 (0.2504)

2015

− 0.0321

(0.1013)

0.4780

(0.3451)

0.3505

(0.1350)

0.6095

(0.4279)

− 0.1367

(0.0949)

0.7887 (0.3351)

0.1728

(0.1193)

0.3767 (0.4064)

Birth cohort

        

1940–1944

− 0.7524

(0.4953)

− 1.7354

(2.4721)

− 1.2019

(0.8175)

− 2.1777

(3.2733)

− 0.6625

(0.4487)

− 1.4954 (2.3632)

− 0.9594

(0.6806)

− 1.8956 (3.0055)

1945–1949

− 0.1425

(0.3123)

− 0.9703

(1.5766)

− 0.3710

(0.5004)

− 0.8736

(1.6753)

− 0.1121

(0.2835)

− 0.8130 (1.5608)

− 0.3928

(0.4389)

− 0.9749 (1.7145)

1950–1954

− 0.0072

(0.2265)

− 0.3966

(1.0631)

0.1401

(0.3337)

0.0176

(1.1198)

− 0.0417

(0.2077)

− 0.5283 (1.1374)

0.1240

(0.2854)

− 0.2420 (1.1555)

1955–1959

− 0.0447

(0.1746)

− 0.1085

(0.7528)

0.2061

(0.2565)

0.3059

(0.8626)

− 0.1052

(0.1598)

− 0.2948 (0.7934)

0.1174

(0.2214)

0.0522 (0.8503)

1960–1964

0.1062

(0.1338)

0.6017

(0.5441)

0.4680

(0.1969)

0.8838

(0.6654)

0.0194

(0.1230)

0.2703 (0.5417)

0.2639

(0.1697)

0.7948 (0.6331)

1965–1969

0.0267

(0.1055)

0.8425

(0.4051)

0.4448

(0.1555)

1.0623

(0.4970)

− 0.1170

(0.0968)

0.6991 (0.3999)

0.1255

(0.1325)

0.8303 (0.4729)

1970–1974

0.4025

(0.0927)

1.1068

(0.2814)

0.7983

(0.1296)

1.2502

(0.3394)

0.2555

(0.0852)

1.0162 (0.2788)

0.4505

(0.1106)

0.8978 (0.3250)

1975–1979

0.4147

(0.0838)

0.9599

(0.1706)

0.6651

(0.1126)

0.9760

(0.1964)

0.3065

(0.0759)

0.9963 (0.1713)

0.4079

(0.0936)

0.7094 (0.1898)

1980–1984

0.2720

(0.0787)

0.6563

(0.1080)

0.3761

(0.1064)

0.5712

(0.1243)

0.1957

(0.0702)

0.8780 (0.1084)

0.3229

(0.0835)

0.5577 (0.1128)

1985–1989

− 0.1476

(0.0938)

− 0.0496

(0.1760)

− 0.3166

(0.1300)

− 0.2827

(0.2258)

− 0.1150

(0.0829)

0.1560 (0.1677)

− 0.1397

(0.1003)

− 0.0499 (0.2013)

1990–1994

− 0.5453

(0.1361)

− 0.7429

(0.3071)

− 0.9911

(0.1958)

− 1.0927

(0.3972)

− 0.3231

(0.1178)

− 0.7372 (0.2921)

− 0.5719

(0.1469)

− 0.6171 (0.3571)

1995–1999

0.4176

(0.3391)

− 0.1639

(0.5337)

− 0.2179

(0.6149)

− 0.6404

(0.8088)

0.6994

(0.2730)

− 0.1472 (0.4802)

0.2517

(0.4067)

− 0.0629 (0.6348)

Intercept

2.7530

(0.0732)

1.3246

(0.3271)

2.1342

(0.1212)

1.2487

(0.4069)

2.9818

(0.0647)

1.1956 (0.3202)

2.5141

(0.0971)

1.2952 (0.3831)

Model fitting tests

        

DF

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Deviance

35.3641

10.2297

25.5717

12.5918

42.7560

37.2338

35.3089

12.1500

AIC

6.5416

4.9183

5.8856

5.0101

6.8816

5.4642

6.3428

4.8999

BIC

− 39.3892

− 64.5237

− 49.1817

− 62.1616

− 31.9974

− 37.5196

− 39.4445

− 62.6034

  1. Standard errors in brackets