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Table 1 Results of estimation of age–period–cohort using the intrinsic estimator method

From: Evolutionary trends in fertility among Chinese women, 1990–2015

  National Urban Rural Town
  All-order First All-order First All-order First All-order First
Age         
15–19 − 0.9204
(0.1402)
0.4394 (0.4037) − 1.3308
(0.2279)
− 0.3720
(0.5273)
− 0.8096
(0.1234)
0.7491 (0.3861) − 1.0607
(0.1839)
0.1453 (0.4841)
20–24 1.8830
(0.0703)
2.6871
(0.2653)
1.8502
(0.1065)
2.3802
(0.3375)
1.9253
(0.0637)
2.8837 (0.2573) 2.0327
(0.0890)
2.8018(0.3148)
25–29 1.7070
(0.0695)
1.9101
(0.1607)
1.9599
(0.0864)
2.1622
(0.1886)
1.6547
(0.0652)
2.0403 (0.1644) 1.8046
(0.0776)
2.1214(0.1828)
30–34 0.8208
(0.0887)
0.1651
(0.1588)
0.8748
(0.0997)
0.5717
(0.1363)
0.8338
(0.0838)
− 0.1059 (0.1900) 0.7905
(0.0947)
0.1978(0.1662)
35–39 − 0.2471
(0.1265)
− 1.1681
(0.2874)
− 0.2257
(0.1444)
− 0.7965
(0.2672)
− 0.2634
(0.1198)
− 1.3246 (0.3281) − 0.2468
(0.1355)
− 1.1951 (0.3151)
40–44 − 1.3539
(0.1869)
− 1.9806
(0.4432)
− 1.3718
(0.2217)
− 1.7947
(0.4477)
− 1.3730
(0.1762)
− 2.0930 (0.4878) − 1.4229
(0.2092)
− 1.9073 (0.4777)
45–49 − 1.8895
(0.2498)
− 2.0529
(0.5477)
− 1.7567
(0.2852)
− 2.1509
(0.6124)
− 1.9678
(0.2378)
− 2.1495 (0.5877) − 1.8975
(0.2707)
− 2.1639 (0.6151)
Period         
1990 0.9019
(0.0829)
0.0557
(0.3380)
0.6954
(0.1225)
0.0841
(0.4227)
0.8891
(0.0761)
0.1468 (0.3319) 0.6181
(0.1056)
− 0.0491 (0.3987)
1995 − 0.0624
(0.0737)
− 0.2527
(0.2136)
− 0.1458
(0.0944)
− 0.2802
(0.2618)
− 0.0886
(0.0696)
− 0.1876 (0.2100) − 0.1530
(0.0860)
− 0.1870 (0.2486)
2000 − 0.3627
(0.0671)
− 0.3566
(0.1093)
− 0.5122
(0.0800)
− 0.4127
(0.1205)
− 0.3134
(0.0624)
− 0.3098 (0.1090) − 0.3745
(0.0724)
− 0.2527 (0.1187)
2005 − 0.2563
(0.0637)
− 0.1006
(0.1070)
− 0.3274
(0.0768)
− 0.2281
(0.1210)
− 0.1801
(0.0582)
− 0.1631 (0.1076) − 0.1828
(0.0670)
− 0.0087 (0.1160)
2010 − 0.1885
(0.0760)
0.1762
(0.2152)
− 0.0606
(0.0983)
0.2273
(0.2642)
− 0.1704
(0.0698)
− 0.2749 (0.2143) − 0.0806
(0.0857)
0.1209 (0.2504)
2015 − 0.0321
(0.1013)
0.4780
(0.3451)
0.3505
(0.1350)
0.6095
(0.4279)
− 0.1367
(0.0949)
0.7887 (0.3351) 0.1728
(0.1193)
0.3767 (0.4064)
Birth cohort         
1940–1944 − 0.7524
(0.4953)
− 1.7354
(2.4721)
− 1.2019
(0.8175)
− 2.1777
(3.2733)
− 0.6625
(0.4487)
− 1.4954 (2.3632) − 0.9594
(0.6806)
− 1.8956 (3.0055)
1945–1949 − 0.1425
(0.3123)
− 0.9703
(1.5766)
− 0.3710
(0.5004)
− 0.8736
(1.6753)
− 0.1121
(0.2835)
− 0.8130 (1.5608) − 0.3928
(0.4389)
− 0.9749 (1.7145)
1950–1954 − 0.0072
(0.2265)
− 0.3966
(1.0631)
0.1401
(0.3337)
0.0176
(1.1198)
− 0.0417
(0.2077)
− 0.5283 (1.1374) 0.1240
(0.2854)
− 0.2420 (1.1555)
1955–1959 − 0.0447
(0.1746)
− 0.1085
(0.7528)
0.2061
(0.2565)
0.3059
(0.8626)
− 0.1052
(0.1598)
− 0.2948 (0.7934) 0.1174
(0.2214)
0.0522 (0.8503)
1960–1964 0.1062
(0.1338)
0.6017
(0.5441)
0.4680
(0.1969)
0.8838
(0.6654)
0.0194
(0.1230)
0.2703 (0.5417) 0.2639
(0.1697)
0.7948 (0.6331)
1965–1969 0.0267
(0.1055)
0.8425
(0.4051)
0.4448
(0.1555)
1.0623
(0.4970)
− 0.1170
(0.0968)
0.6991 (0.3999) 0.1255
(0.1325)
0.8303 (0.4729)
1970–1974 0.4025
(0.0927)
1.1068
(0.2814)
0.7983
(0.1296)
1.2502
(0.3394)
0.2555
(0.0852)
1.0162 (0.2788) 0.4505
(0.1106)
0.8978 (0.3250)
1975–1979 0.4147
(0.0838)
0.9599
(0.1706)
0.6651
(0.1126)
0.9760
(0.1964)
0.3065
(0.0759)
0.9963 (0.1713) 0.4079
(0.0936)
0.7094 (0.1898)
1980–1984 0.2720
(0.0787)
0.6563
(0.1080)
0.3761
(0.1064)
0.5712
(0.1243)
0.1957
(0.0702)
0.8780 (0.1084) 0.3229
(0.0835)
0.5577 (0.1128)
1985–1989 − 0.1476
(0.0938)
− 0.0496
(0.1760)
− 0.3166
(0.1300)
− 0.2827
(0.2258)
− 0.1150
(0.0829)
0.1560 (0.1677) − 0.1397
(0.1003)
− 0.0499 (0.2013)
1990–1994 − 0.5453
(0.1361)
− 0.7429
(0.3071)
− 0.9911
(0.1958)
− 1.0927
(0.3972)
− 0.3231
(0.1178)
− 0.7372 (0.2921) − 0.5719
(0.1469)
− 0.6171 (0.3571)
1995–1999 0.4176
(0.3391)
− 0.1639
(0.5337)
− 0.2179
(0.6149)
− 0.6404
(0.8088)
0.6994
(0.2730)
− 0.1472 (0.4802) 0.2517
(0.4067)
− 0.0629 (0.6348)
Intercept 2.7530
(0.0732)
1.3246
(0.3271)
2.1342
(0.1212)
1.2487
(0.4069)
2.9818
(0.0647)
1.1956 (0.3202) 2.5141
(0.0971)
1.2952 (0.3831)
Model fitting tests         
DF 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Deviance 35.3641 10.2297 25.5717 12.5918 42.7560 37.2338 35.3089 12.1500
AIC 6.5416 4.9183 5.8856 5.0101 6.8816 5.4642 6.3428 4.8999
BIC − 39.3892 − 64.5237 − 49.1817 − 62.1616 − 31.9974 − 37.5196 − 39.4445 − 62.6034
  1. Standard errors in brackets