From: Evolutionary trends in fertility among Chinese women, 1990–2015
National | Urban | Rural | Town | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All-order | First | All-order | First | All-order | First | All-order | First | |
Age | ||||||||
15–19 | − 0.9204 (0.1402) | 0.4394 (0.4037) | − 1.3308 (0.2279) | − 0.3720 (0.5273) | − 0.8096 (0.1234) | 0.7491 (0.3861) | − 1.0607 (0.1839) | 0.1453 (0.4841) |
20–24 | 1.8830 (0.0703) | 2.6871 (0.2653) | 1.8502 (0.1065) | 2.3802 (0.3375) | 1.9253 (0.0637) | 2.8837 (0.2573) | 2.0327 (0.0890) | 2.8018(0.3148) |
25–29 | 1.7070 (0.0695) | 1.9101 (0.1607) | 1.9599 (0.0864) | 2.1622 (0.1886) | 1.6547 (0.0652) | 2.0403 (0.1644) | 1.8046 (0.0776) | 2.1214(0.1828) |
30–34 | 0.8208 (0.0887) | 0.1651 (0.1588) | 0.8748 (0.0997) | 0.5717 (0.1363) | 0.8338 (0.0838) | − 0.1059 (0.1900) | 0.7905 (0.0947) | 0.1978(0.1662) |
35–39 | − 0.2471 (0.1265) | − 1.1681 (0.2874) | − 0.2257 (0.1444) | − 0.7965 (0.2672) | − 0.2634 (0.1198) | − 1.3246 (0.3281) | − 0.2468 (0.1355) | − 1.1951 (0.3151) |
40–44 | − 1.3539 (0.1869) | − 1.9806 (0.4432) | − 1.3718 (0.2217) | − 1.7947 (0.4477) | − 1.3730 (0.1762) | − 2.0930 (0.4878) | − 1.4229 (0.2092) | − 1.9073 (0.4777) |
45–49 | − 1.8895 (0.2498) | − 2.0529 (0.5477) | − 1.7567 (0.2852) | − 2.1509 (0.6124) | − 1.9678 (0.2378) | − 2.1495 (0.5877) | − 1.8975 (0.2707) | − 2.1639 (0.6151) |
Period | ||||||||
1990 | 0.9019 (0.0829) | 0.0557 (0.3380) | 0.6954 (0.1225) | 0.0841 (0.4227) | 0.8891 (0.0761) | 0.1468 (0.3319) | 0.6181 (0.1056) | − 0.0491 (0.3987) |
1995 | − 0.0624 (0.0737) | − 0.2527 (0.2136) | − 0.1458 (0.0944) | − 0.2802 (0.2618) | − 0.0886 (0.0696) | − 0.1876 (0.2100) | − 0.1530 (0.0860) | − 0.1870 (0.2486) |
2000 | − 0.3627 (0.0671) | − 0.3566 (0.1093) | − 0.5122 (0.0800) | − 0.4127 (0.1205) | − 0.3134 (0.0624) | − 0.3098 (0.1090) | − 0.3745 (0.0724) | − 0.2527 (0.1187) |
2005 | − 0.2563 (0.0637) | − 0.1006 (0.1070) | − 0.3274 (0.0768) | − 0.2281 (0.1210) | − 0.1801 (0.0582) | − 0.1631 (0.1076) | − 0.1828 (0.0670) | − 0.0087 (0.1160) |
2010 | − 0.1885 (0.0760) | 0.1762 (0.2152) | − 0.0606 (0.0983) | 0.2273 (0.2642) | − 0.1704 (0.0698) | − 0.2749 (0.2143) | − 0.0806 (0.0857) | 0.1209 (0.2504) |
2015 | − 0.0321 (0.1013) | 0.4780 (0.3451) | 0.3505 (0.1350) | 0.6095 (0.4279) | − 0.1367 (0.0949) | 0.7887 (0.3351) | 0.1728 (0.1193) | 0.3767 (0.4064) |
Birth cohort | ||||||||
1940–1944 | − 0.7524 (0.4953) | − 1.7354 (2.4721) | − 1.2019 (0.8175) | − 2.1777 (3.2733) | − 0.6625 (0.4487) | − 1.4954 (2.3632) | − 0.9594 (0.6806) | − 1.8956 (3.0055) |
1945–1949 | − 0.1425 (0.3123) | − 0.9703 (1.5766) | − 0.3710 (0.5004) | − 0.8736 (1.6753) | − 0.1121 (0.2835) | − 0.8130 (1.5608) | − 0.3928 (0.4389) | − 0.9749 (1.7145) |
1950–1954 | − 0.0072 (0.2265) | − 0.3966 (1.0631) | 0.1401 (0.3337) | 0.0176 (1.1198) | − 0.0417 (0.2077) | − 0.5283 (1.1374) | 0.1240 (0.2854) | − 0.2420 (1.1555) |
1955–1959 | − 0.0447 (0.1746) | − 0.1085 (0.7528) | 0.2061 (0.2565) | 0.3059 (0.8626) | − 0.1052 (0.1598) | − 0.2948 (0.7934) | 0.1174 (0.2214) | 0.0522 (0.8503) |
1960–1964 | 0.1062 (0.1338) | 0.6017 (0.5441) | 0.4680 (0.1969) | 0.8838 (0.6654) | 0.0194 (0.1230) | 0.2703 (0.5417) | 0.2639 (0.1697) | 0.7948 (0.6331) |
1965–1969 | 0.0267 (0.1055) | 0.8425 (0.4051) | 0.4448 (0.1555) | 1.0623 (0.4970) | − 0.1170 (0.0968) | 0.6991 (0.3999) | 0.1255 (0.1325) | 0.8303 (0.4729) |
1970–1974 | 0.4025 (0.0927) | 1.1068 (0.2814) | 0.7983 (0.1296) | 1.2502 (0.3394) | 0.2555 (0.0852) | 1.0162 (0.2788) | 0.4505 (0.1106) | 0.8978 (0.3250) |
1975–1979 | 0.4147 (0.0838) | 0.9599 (0.1706) | 0.6651 (0.1126) | 0.9760 (0.1964) | 0.3065 (0.0759) | 0.9963 (0.1713) | 0.4079 (0.0936) | 0.7094 (0.1898) |
1980–1984 | 0.2720 (0.0787) | 0.6563 (0.1080) | 0.3761 (0.1064) | 0.5712 (0.1243) | 0.1957 (0.0702) | 0.8780 (0.1084) | 0.3229 (0.0835) | 0.5577 (0.1128) |
1985–1989 | − 0.1476 (0.0938) | − 0.0496 (0.1760) | − 0.3166 (0.1300) | − 0.2827 (0.2258) | − 0.1150 (0.0829) | 0.1560 (0.1677) | − 0.1397 (0.1003) | − 0.0499 (0.2013) |
1990–1994 | − 0.5453 (0.1361) | − 0.7429 (0.3071) | − 0.9911 (0.1958) | − 1.0927 (0.3972) | − 0.3231 (0.1178) | − 0.7372 (0.2921) | − 0.5719 (0.1469) | − 0.6171 (0.3571) |
1995–1999 | 0.4176 (0.3391) | − 0.1639 (0.5337) | − 0.2179 (0.6149) | − 0.6404 (0.8088) | 0.6994 (0.2730) | − 0.1472 (0.4802) | 0.2517 (0.4067) | − 0.0629 (0.6348) |
Intercept | 2.7530 (0.0732) | 1.3246 (0.3271) | 2.1342 (0.1212) | 1.2487 (0.4069) | 2.9818 (0.0647) | 1.1956 (0.3202) | 2.5141 (0.0971) | 1.2952 (0.3831) |
Model fitting tests | ||||||||
DF | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
Deviance | 35.3641 | 10.2297 | 25.5717 | 12.5918 | 42.7560 | 37.2338 | 35.3089 | 12.1500 |
AIC | 6.5416 | 4.9183 | 5.8856 | 5.0101 | 6.8816 | 5.4642 | 6.3428 | 4.8999 |
BIC | − 39.3892 | − 64.5237 | − 49.1817 | − 62.1616 | − 31.9974 | − 37.5196 | − 39.4445 | − 62.6034 |